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24-Month Projections Financial model · $2M raise · 24 months

March 2026
Confidential

Three revenue streams reach $3.9M ARR and cash-flow positive by Month 19 on a $2M raise. Built bottom-up from what we know today and stress-tested across scenarios.

$522K Monthly Revenue Month 24 · Feb 2028
$3.9M Annual Run Rate 3 revenue streams
Sep '27 Cash Flow Positive Month 19 of 24
$1.23M Ending Cash Month 24 · After $2M raise

No single stream carries the business

$10K Mo 1 $30K Mo 6 $90K Mo 12 $240K Mo 18 $522K Mo 24 Transactional Subscriptions B2B 37% 41% 21%
If any stream underperforms by 50%, the other two still carry the business past breakeven.

Revenue overtakes expenses by Sep '27

Sep ’27 BREAKEVEN Mo 1 Mo 6 Mo 12 Mo 18 Mo 24 $522K Revenue $344K Expenses
Cash trough of $712K at Month 18 — well within the $2M raise. Even 30–50% slower growth reaches breakeven.
Stress Testing

What We Found

Nine growth drivers, three scenarios. Three findings that shape our plan.

Open Question

The biggest assumption is being measured now.

Subscriber print conversion accounts for 29% of Month 24 revenue ($154K/month). The “Print Ordered” event is being measured now. Until we have data, this is the number most likely to move.

Downside Scenario

30–50% slower growth still reaches breakeven.

We ran a combined slow-growth scenario across all 9 drivers simultaneously. Result: breakeven with $400–550K ending cash, well within the $2M raise.

Capital Allocation

Churn compounds hardest — so we fund retention first.

Of all 9 drivers, monthly churn has the largest compounding effect on ending cash. That’s why the Phase 2 hiring plan funds a dedicated retention role — not deferred to Phase 3 or 4.

Key Assumptions

Validated (from production data)
  • ARPU: $9.19/mo from Stripe actuals across 264 active subscribers
  • Activation → Paid: 44–67% conversion (credit card required at trial)
  • Monthly churn: Modeled at 6%, consistent with observed retention
  • Referral rate: 45% of new subscribers arrive via professional/parent referrals at zero CAC
Assumed (measurement in progress)
  • Print conversion: 15% of subscribers order a hardcover — 29% of Mo 24 revenue, never tracked
  • Hardcover attach: Scaled with subscriber base; fulfillment costs declining with POD volume
  • B2B staircase: ACV grows from $2,400 → $5,400 across 4 phases; based on pilot pricing, not closed deals

Three streams. Validated inputs. Known risks.

Three independent revenue streams, each growing on its own. Unit economics validated from 264 paying subscribers. A hiring plan that funds retention before growth. And the biggest open question — subscriber print conversion, 29% of Month 24 revenue — is being measured now.